Sunday, October 15, 2017
U.S. WILL BE HIT BY EMP ATTACK:ONLY A QUESTION OF WHEN
Comprehensive threat assessment and scenario planning for EMP attacks remain underdeveloped. This inaction is in the face of warnings, such as the one in the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) which stated clearly that the "expanded reliance on sophisticated electronic technologies by the United States, its allies and partners increases their vulnerability to the destructive effects of electromagnetic pulse (EMP)."
Yet, the Department of Defense has not implemented the QDR's proposed EMP Action Plan.
Even the National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP), the plan dedicated to ensuring that U.S. critical infrastructure is protected from terrorist attack, does not directly address the EMP threat.
The U.S. MUST incorporate EMP Attacks into national planning scenarios, develop a national recovery plan, and harden the grid NOW.
[Note the source of the above image: "testimony before the House National Security Committee".
This is NOT science fiction.]
ATTACK BY ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE...E.M.P.
Americans remain gravely ill prepared for an EMP attack. In fact, the average U.S. city has only three days worth of food and health care provisions. Most Americans do not have enough batteries to keep flashlights working for any period of time, much less generator capabilities.
And many of the country's most vulnerable citizens rely on the electricity grid for medical equipment, such as dialysis machines.
Even standard medication will be difficult or impossible to come by if EMP disables pharmacies and transportation networks.
Food would rot, health care would be reduced to its most rudimentary level, communication abilities would be limited and there would eventually not be any transportation from lack of fuel. Rule of law would become impossible to sustain; police departments would be overwhelmed.
There is a HUGE difference between power blackouts and the aftermath of an EMP attack.
We've seen the reults of long-term power outages after hurricanes and other natural disasters.
In an EMP attack, however, the damage to power lines, 'supervisory control and data acquisition' (SCADA) control systems (for utility systems infrastructure), and commercial computers would very likely be permanent due to fused power lines and lost data-which would require replacing the entire electric system in the affected area.
If a nuclear warhead is detonated by a satellite in orbit, there is a strong potential for substantial damage to U.S. and other satellites as well as any spacecraft in use at the time of the explosion.
The military applications of such satellites are critical for defense systems that rely on GPS guidance, such as ballistic missiles and many conventional military strike weapons. The adverse impact on U.S. space-based communications, early-warning assets, fire-control systems, overhead sensors and imagery, and geospatial intelligence would be substantial as well.
The U.S. cannot, MUST NOT continue to ignore the EMP threat.
While some progress has been made in hardening potential U.S. targets against attack, including critical military and government systems, the vast majority of electrical systems are unshielded and unprotected, especially in the civilian sector.
If properly shielded, electrical devices and systems can generally survive even the strongest EMPs
[NOTE: Much of the above text, from beneath the last image to here, comes from an article by Jena Baker McNeill, Policy Analyst for Homeland Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies.]
"A severe solar storm could knock the large sections of the electrical power grid out for years."
WITHOUT THE GRID THERE WILL BE NO WAY TO REFINE OIL, CREATE FUEL, NOR A WAY TO EASILY PUMP THE GAS/DIESEL ON-HAND, TO PUMP WATER TO HOMES, AND WITHOUT FUEL THERE WILL BE NO WAY TO TRANSPORT FOOD, MEDICAL SUPPLIES OR ANYTHING ELSE TO CONSUMERS.
REMEMBER, THERE WILL BE NO REFRIGERATION AVAILABLE THAT REQUIRES A POWER GRID.
THERE WILL BE NO RELIABLE COMMUNICATIONS DEVICES AVAILABLE TO 'AVERAGE CITIZENS' AFTER A TIME.
NO COMPUTERS, NO INTERNET, NO CELLPHONES.
WE MAY LOSE COMMUNICATIONS SATELLITES IF WE COME UNDER HEAVY EMP ATTACK FROM ORBITING 'ENEMY' SATELLITES FITTED WITH EMP DEVICES.
WITHOUT THE GRID, THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE NO WAY TO FLUSH A TOILET, PICK UP GARBAGE, PREPARE A MEAL THE 'USUAL WAY'.
PIPELINES WILL BE SHUT DOWN, PROPANE DELIVERIES WILL BE SEVERELY AFFECTED.
HOW LONG COAL AND SUCH FUELS WILL BE AVAILABLE DEPENDS ON HOW MANY WILL TURN TO THOSE RESOURCES.
SHOULD AN EMP ATTACK COME IN WINTER, MANY WILL REQUIRE SUCH PRODUCTS TO STAY WARM AND COOK MEALS.
SOLAR AND WIND ENERGY WILL BE SORELY TAXED TO PROVIDE NECESSARY REPLACEMENT FOR A GRID-DOWN SCENARIO TO THE MILLIONS WHO WILL DESPERATELY WANT IT.
IF THE EFFECTS LAST FOR MONTHS, THERE MAY COME A TIME WHEN THERE WILL SIMPLY BE NO WAY TO COOL NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS' REACTORS TO PREVENT EXPLOSIONS AND MELTDOWNS.
"The emergency systems are only designed to run long enough to get the power plants back onto a functioning grid. Once the diesel fuel runs out ( no power grid = no oil refineries), the plants will one by one, self destruct."
IMAGINE HUNDREDS OF 'FUKUSHIMAS'.
FOR ANY HOSPITAL THAT DEPENDS ON THE CURRENT ELECTRIC POWER GRID, OR WOULD DEPEND ON GAS OR DIESEL FUEL FOR GENERATORS, ONCE THE GRID IS GONE, THERE WILL BE NO WAY TO PERFORM SURGERIES AND KEEP A PATIENT ON A RESUSCITATOR OR HEART-BYPASS MACHINE.
THOSE WHO NEED SUCH DEVICES TO LIVE WILL NOT LIVE UNLESS A HOSPITAL CAN UTILIZE SOLAR OR OTHER ALTERNATIVE ENERGY TO POWER EVERYTHING.
The International Electrotechnical Commission defines three components associated with a nuclear electromagnetic pulse: E1, E2, and E3.
The E1 pulse is brief, intense, and very quick (traveling at over 90% of the speed of light), and can take out computers and telecommunications equipment owing to its ability to exceed voltage limitations.
The E2 element is intermediate in duration, lasting from a microsecond to a second after the initiation of the EMP, and is similar in its effects to lightning. As such, the grid is generally shielded against E2.
By contrast, the E3 pulse is much slower, a result of the nuclear explosion affecting the earth’s magnetic field, and is very similar to the effects of an intense solar storm.
The E3 effect of a nuclear blast or severe solar storm would be to create massive currents on power lines, which could then destroy electrical transformers and potentially impact power plants as well.
Older, vacuum tube (valve) based equipment is generally much less vulnerable to nuclear EMP than solid state equipment, which is much more susceptible to damage by large but brief voltage and current surges.
One curious facet of an EMP event is that we wouldn’t even feel it pass through our bodies.
The EMP would pass unnoticed through us, even as it fried the iPhones and Galaxies in our pockets, knocked out our telecommunications system, rendered our cars and computers without the ability to function, and took out our power grid.
We would have little idea of the long-term effects awaiting us because there would be no communication as in the past. No easy long distance mobility. Nothing that our highly evolved, sophisticated, and electronic society relies on would be available to all, or even to the majority of Americans.
"The Potential Consequences Are Almost Unimaginable", wrote Forbes back in 2014.
There’s an excerpted summary from the 2008 Report of 'the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack' that would make great science fiction reading.
Unfortunately, it’s not science fiction but scientific fact.
SEE, WE'VE KNOWN ALL THAT FOR YEARS, BEFORE THIS SUMMARY.
IT'S BEEN WRITTEN ABOUT IN EVERY MAINSTREAM MEDIA, IN BOLD HEADLINES, OVER AND OVER AGAIN. BUT NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONSEQUENCE WHATSOEVER HAS BEEN DONE TO SAFEGUARD OUR GRID WHEN THIS HAPPENS...WHEN, NOT IF, WHEN.
AFTER SO MANY WARNINGS TO CONGRESS AND THE PRESS OVER A PERIOD OF DECADES NOW, STILL NOTHING IS BEING DONE TO ADEQUATELY PREPARE AMERICANS FOR SUCH A REAL, SUCH A STRONG POSSIBILITY AS SURVIVAL WITHOUT A POWER GRID FOR MONTHS TO YEARS.
THE ONLY REASON I DECIDED TO WRITE THIS BLOG ENTRY IS TO GET READERS TO THINK ABOUT THIS, TO ASK HOW WE WOULD ALL SURVIVE AND MAKE IT THROUGH SUCH AN EVENT.
WE NEED A WORKABLE PLAN AND WE NEED TO PREPARE NOW FOR WHAT IS SURE TO COME AT SOME POINT IN OUR LIVES AND IN THE LIVES OF OUR CHILDREN AND THEIR CHILDREN.
WE MUST BE AS PREPARED AS WE CAN POSSIBLY BE. WE ARE ON OUR OWN IN THIS, OBVIOUSLY.
~ Congress warned North Korean EMP attack would kill '90% of all Americans'
(Be aware that warning came from one Congressman who had read a book about post-EMP disaster.)
~ Failure to Protect U.S. Against Electromagnetic Pulse Threat Could Make 9/11 Look Trivial Someday...FORBES
~ Understanding North Korea's EMP Threat | HuffPost
~ Millions of American lives could be at stake as North Korea threatens EMP attack: FOX...
~ Iran endorses nuclear EMP attack on United States
~ Some deal: Iran could wipe out the United States | The Seattle Times
~ How North Korea could kill 90 percent of Americans | TheHill
~ 2017 The Year On An EMP Attack –7 Actions To Take Immediately
~ North Korea Threatens Electromagnetic Pulse Attack on US
EVEN RUSSIA HAS TRIED TO DRIVE THIS POINT HOME TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE OVER THE YEARS.
~ Iran, North Korea Could Attack US With EMP - Sputnik International
BUT IT'S NOT JUST A THREAT FROM IRAN AND NORTH KOREA, OR EVEN FROM CHINA OR RUSSIA, IT'S ALSO A GIVEN THAT, AT SOME POINT IN TIME, OUR OWN SUN WILL BLAST US WITH A CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME) THAT WILL BE AS VIOLENT AS OR MORE VIOLENT THAN THE 'CARRINGTON EVENT' WHICH, HAD IT HAPPENED TODAY, WOULD HAVE KNOCKED OUT THE POWER GRID IN OVER HALF THE WORLD'S NATIONS FOR AT LEAST A YEAR OR LONGER.
WE'D BE FIGHTING ONE ANOTHER FOR REPAIR AND REPLACEMENT PARTS TO RESTART THE GRID. CHAOS WOULD ERUPT EVERYWHERE IFTHE GRID WAS DOWN.
IT WOULD BE COMPLETE AND UTTER MADNESS AND OUR CONGRESS KNOWS THIS BUT DOES NOTHING, JUST NOTHING, YEAR AFTER YEAR.
What If the Biggest Solar Storm on Record Happened Today?
FOR YOUR OWN SAKE, DO READ THE ABOVE ARTICLE FROM NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC.
AS ONE FAIRLY GOOD ARTICLE PUT IT BACK IN 2013:
OUR E.M.P. VULNERABILITY INVITES DISASTER "According to a blue-ribbon commission empaneled by Congress in the last decade to evaluate this EMP threat, the effect of such an attack – perhaps delivered by a relatively short-range ballistic missile launched from a ship off a U.S. coast – would be “catastrophic.” That is because, at present, our grid has not been “hardened” to withstand such electromagnetic pulses.
As a result, the EMP Threat Commission found that our bulk power system and particularly its key components – notably, roughly 1,000 large and smaller transformers that are its backbone – would be damaged or destroyed. This would cause power outages that would be widespread, protracted and result in the rapid and enduring collapse of all other critical infrastructures (food, water, medical, telecommunications, transportation, finance, etc.)
The Commission’s chairman, Dr. William Graham, put a fine point on the magnitude of the catastrophe. He estimated that within a year of such a take-down of our grid, nine-out-of-ten Americans would be dead.
To make matters worse, as Michael Del Rosso, the former chairman of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers’ Critical Infrastructure Protection Committee, added – even if no hostile power responds catastrophically to our vulnerability to EMP, a similar level of devastation can be caused by natural phenomena.
Specifically, intense solar flaring of the kind currently occurring could, according to an estimate by Lloyds of London, leave up to 40 million Americans without power for as long as two years.
That such a sun-induced occurrence will afflict our planet is not merely a hypothetical possibility. It is a matter of when, not if. In fact, the earth’s orbit recently missed by one week intersecting with the devastating geomagnetic disturbances caused by a powerful coronal mass ejection.
So great is our vulnerability and so high are the stakes if it is not promptly mitigated that an informal EMP Coalition has just been established to raise awareness and campaign for corrective action.
Its bipartisan honorary co-chairs are former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Director of Central Intelligence R. James Woolsey. And its partners include many of the most knowledgeable and effective experts, organizations and activists in this field including: EMPact America, the Electric Infrastructure Security Council, High Frontier and the Center for Security Policy."
FROM THE ONLINE MAGAZINE WEBSITE OF "THE CENTER FOR THE NATIONAL INTEREST"
JUNE 5, 2017
"An EMP attack does not require an accurate guidance system because the area of effect, having a radius of hundreds or thousands of kilometers, is so large. No reentry vehicle is needed because the warhead is detonated at high-altitude, above the atmosphere.
Missile reliability matters little because only one missile has to work to make an EMP attack.
North Korea could make an EMP attack against the United States by launching a short-range missile off a freighter or submarine or by lofting a warhead to 30 kilometers burst height by balloon. While such lower-altitude EMP attacks would not cover the whole US mainland, as would an attack at higher-altitude (300 kilometers), even a balloon-lofted warhead detonated at 30 kilometers altitude could blackout the Eastern Grid that supports most of the population and generates 75 percent of US electricity.
A STRIKE BY SATELLITE WOULD AFFECT AN AREA THOUSANDS OF MILES WIDE.
Moreover, an EMP attack could be made by a North Korean satellite. The design of an EMP or even a super-EMP weapon could be relatively small and lightweight, resembling the US W-79 Enhanced Radiation Warhead nuclear artillery shell of the 1980s, designed in the 1950s. Such a device could fit inside North Korea’s Kwangmyongsong-3 (KMS-3) and Kwangmyongsong-4 (KMS-4) satellites that presently orbit the Earth. The south polar trajectory of KMS-3 and KMS-4 evades US Ballistic Missile Early Warning Radars and National Missile Defenses, resembling a Russian secret weapon developed during the Cold War, called the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) that would have used a nuclear-armed satellite to make a surprise EMP attack on the United States.
The high-altitude EMP (HEMP) threat of interest requires exo-atmospheric detonation, at 30 kilometers altitude or above, and produces EMP out to ranges of hundreds to thousands of miles.
Damage and upset to electronic systems will happen from E1 EMP field strengths far below Liu’s “15,000 volts/meter or higher.”
A one meter wire connected to a semiconductor device, such as a mouse cord or interconnection cable, would place hundreds to thousands of volts on microelectronic devices out to ranges of hundreds of miles for low-yield devices. Based on our experience with many EMP tests, semiconductor junctions operate at a few volts, and will experience breakdown at a few volts over their operating point, allowing their power supply to destroy exposed junctions.
Digital electronics can be upset by extraneous pulses of a few volts. For unmanned control systems present within the electric power grid, long-haul communication repeater stations, and gas pipelines, an electronic upset is tantamount to permanent damage. Temporary upset of electronics can also have catastrophic consequences for military operations. No electronics should be considered invulnerable to EMP unless hardened or tested to certify survivability.
When assessing the potential vulnerability of US military forces and civilian critical infrastructures to EMP, it is necessary to be mindful of the complex interdependencies of these highly-networked systems, because EMP upset and damage of a very small fraction of the total system can cause total system failure.
Some highly-critical unprotected electronics have been upset or damaged in simulated EMP tests, not at “15,000 volts/meter or higher,” but at threat levels far below 1,000 volts/meter.
Real world failures of electric grids from various causes indicate that the Congressional EMP Commission, US Department of Defense, US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), US Department of Homeland Security, and US Defense Threat Reduction Agency are right that a nuclear EMP attack would have catastrophic consequences. Significant and highly-disruptive blackouts have been caused by single-point failures cascading into system-wide failures, originating from damage comprising far less than 1 percent of the total system.
In contrast to blackouts caused by single-point or small-scale failures, a nuclear EMP attack would inflict massive widespread damage to the electric grid, causing millions of failure points. With few exceptions, the US national electric grid is unhardened and untested against nuclear EMP attack. In the event of a nuclear EMP attack on the United States, a widespread protracted blackout is inevitable. This common sense assessment is also supported by the nation’s best computer modeling.
-- The Great Northeast Blackout of 2003—that put 50 million people in the dark for a day, contributed to at least 11 deaths, and cost an estimated $6 billion—originated from a single failure point when a powerline contacted a tree branch, damaging less than 0.0000001 (0.00001%) of the total system.
-- The New York City Blackout of 1977, which resulted in the arrest of 4,500 looters and injury of 550 police officers, was caused by a lightning strike on a substation that tripped two circuit breakers.
-- India’s nationwide blackout of 2012—the largest blackout in history, effecting 670 million people, 9% of the world population—was caused by overload of a single high-voltage powerline.
NOW I DON'T CARE WHO WRITES SUCH AN ARTICLE, THE FACTS ARE IN IT, THE TRUTH IS THERE AND WE'D DO WELL TO LISTEN AND MAKE WHATEVER PLANS WE CAN MAKE FOR WHEN, NOT IF, BUT WHEN THIS HAPPENS.
IF WE FAIL TO DO SO, WE HAVE NO ONE TO BLAME BUT OURSELVES WHEN ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE AND WE DON'T HAVE A CLUE HOW TO SURVIVE.
EACH OF US MUST DECIDE WHAT WE'RE CAPABLE OF DOING IN RESPONSE TO SUCH AN EVENT, REALISTICALLY, AND SET ABOUT METHODICALLY, CALMLY TO INSURE OUR SURVIVAL.
I'VE BEEN SAYING THIS FOR YEARS HERE BECAUSE I AM 100% CONVINCED THAT WHETHER BY IRAN, WHO ABHORS US AND CALLS AMERICA "THE GREAT SATAN", OR BY CRAZY BOY KIM JONG UN, WHO WOULD BLAST US JUST FOR FUN, OR WHETHER BY THE SUN OR OTHER "SPACE WEATHER", WE WILL SEE THIS IN OUR LIFETIMES.
COUNT ON IT, PREPARE YOUR MINDS FOR IT, AND PLAN FOR WHATEVER YOUR FAMILY WILL REQUIRE TO SURVIVE IT. THEN HOPE THAT WE WHO ARE SAYING SUCH THINGS ARE WRONG.
"BE PREPARED"...FOR ANYTHING...FOR EVERYTHING.
ONLY A FOOL WOULDN'T DO ALL HE COULD TO LIVE THROUGH A DISASTER HE KNOWS IS COMING.
POSTSCRIPT AND SOURCES NOT CITED ABOVE:
P.S.: Some of you may have friends who work in the "Intelligence agencies" of America. IF you do and a bigger IF they are honest, they just may tell you that it is common knowledge in that community that certain media are used for "damage control" when honest information that might incite American people to take action and DEMAND changes that would be too costly for Congress to consider, things like DEMANDING WE GET EMP-PREPARED.Those HONEST employees, your honest friends, would, just off the top of their heads, name among the 10 top sites for dispelling "scare stories" that "incite the public to riot" as...
2. POPULAR SCIENCE
3. POPULAR MECHANICS.
Those last 2 have been used for over 50 years to accomplish the calming of the masses.
Case in point?
The Popular Mechanics 2017 articles to dispel the "fear" of EMP attacks, like this one from March of this year:
"No, North Korea Can't Kill 90 Percent of Americans.
Pyongyang isn't going to knock out the electrical grid and cause riots at the supermarket"
Allow me to point out that the propaganda techniques and flawed logic of such an article ARE BLATANTLY OBVIOUS to the well-informed.
Right away you will see ...
WEAK INFERENCE (or False Cause): Weak inference is when a judgment is made with insufficient evidence, or that the conclusion does not necessarily follow from the evidence given.
MISUSE OF STATISTICS: Absolute and proportional quantities are mixed.
STEREOTYPING: Giving a person or an idea a bad label by using an easy to remember pejorative name.
USE OF 'ad hominem' ATTACK (also called Deflection): You attack the messenger, instead of the argument or evidence that is presented.
USE OF 'tu quoque' ATTACK: accusing another of committing a logical fallacy or propaganda technique instead of addressing the claim of the argument and evidence.
DISTORTION OF DATA or OUT OF CONTEXT or CARD STACKING or CHERRY PICKING:
This technique is used to convince the audience by using ONLY SELECTED information and not presenting the COMPLETE story.
Manipulating information to make something (or someone?) appear better (or worse) than it is, often by unfair comparison or omitting facts.
A propaganda technique is an improper appeal to emotion used for the purpose of swaying the opinions of an audience.
Accusing someone who is presenting FACTS of trying to "scare" others, of being a "fear monger" while never mentioning that the FACTS are CORRECT.
IF YOU READ ONLY THE FOLLOWING SOURCES, I CAN ASSURE YOU THAT YOU WILL BE AMONG THE BEST-INFORMED HUMAN BEINGS ON EARTH AS REGARDS E.M.P. CAPABILITY AND ITS AFTERMATH.
KNOWLEDGE IS POWER.
WE LEARN SO THAT WE DO NOT PERISH!
GRID DOWN FOR 4 TO 10 YEARS.
~ According to Electric Infrastructure Security Council, Report: USSR Nuclear EMP Upper Atmosphere Kazakhstan Test 184, (www.eiscouncil.org/APP_Data/upload/a4ce4b06-1a77-44d-83eb-842bb2a56fc6.pdf), citing research by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, a comparable EMP event over the U.S. today “would likely damage about 365 large transformers in the U.S. power grid, leaving about 40 percent of the U.S. population without electrical power for 4 to 10 years.”
~ John S. Foster, Jr., Earl Gjelde, William R. Graham, Robert J. Hermann, Henry M. Kluepfel, Richard L. Lawson, Gordon K. Soper, Lowell L. Wood, Jr., and Joan B. Woodard, Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack: Critical National Infrastructures (Washington, D.C.: EMP Commission, April 2008), http://www.empcommission.org/ docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf.
~ Foster, et al., Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, Volume. 1: Executive Report, 4-8.
~ For the BEST unclassified modeling assessment of likely damage to the US national electric grid from nuclear EMP attack see:
US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Interagency Report, coordinated with the Department of Defense and Oak Ridge National Laboratory: Electromagnetic Pulse: Effects on the U.S. Power Grid, Executive Summary (2010);
FERC Interagency Report by Edward Savage, James Gilbert and William Radasky, The Early-Time (E1) High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) and Its Impact on the U.S. Power Grid (Meta-R-320) Metatech Corporation (January 2010);
FERC Interagency Report by James Gilbert, John Kappenman, William Radasky, and Edward Savage, The Late-Time (E3) High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) and Its Impact on the U.S. Power Grid (Meta-R-321) Metatech Corporation (January 2010).
~ Peter V. Pry, Statement Before the United States Senate Subcommittee on Terrorism, Technology, and Homeland Security Hearing on Terrorism and the EMP Threat to Homeland Security: “Foreign Views of Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack,” March 8, 2005, https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-109shrg21324/pdf/CHRG-109shrg21324.pdf.;
Posted by Waninahi at 1:21 PM